What I Talk About When I Talk About Money

The Mirage of the Santa Ana Winds

The sun went down early today, swallowed by a strange, hazy horizon.

On my way home, the traffic on the 405 was worse than usual—a river of red taillights bleeding into the dusk. The radio mentioned a record-breaking congestion index for Los Angeles, a statistic that feels both new and ancient. But what caught my attention was a smaller story, buried beneath the noise.

A mysterious pop-up installation has appeared on Sunset Boulevard. It’s wrapped in opaque plastic, hidden from view, but the silhouette suggests something massive—perhaps related to Taylor Swift, perhaps Disney. People are lined up on the sidewalk, staring at a blank wall, convinced that something miraculous is happening just behind the curtain.

When I look at the matrix of the money world, we are all standing on the sidewalk, staring at opaque numbers—Job Reports, Inflation Data, Fed Whispers—convinced we can see the shape of the future behind the plastic. We see a “Goldilocks” silhouette, but we don’t know if it’s a bear or a fairytale until the curtain drops.

I sat on my couch, the city lights flickering below like a nervous nervous system, and opened the logbook to record the day’s illusions.

1. The “Perfect” Number: A Mirage?

• The Event: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came out this morning.
• The Data: The market wanted a “soft landing,” and it got exactly that. The numbers were “not too hot, not too cold.” It solidified the expectation that the Fed will cut rates next week.
• The Reality: But beneath the surface, the water is murky. The unemployment rate is ticking up in specific sectors. The “Goldilocks” scenario feels engineered, fragile. The market is celebrating a cut that hasn’t happened yet, betting on a future that is still wrapped in plastic.
• My Thought: We are cheering for a medicine that proves we are sick. It is a strange paradox. We want the economy to be weak enough to need saving, but strong enough to keep growing.

2. The Bitcoin Divergence

• The Movement: While stocks drifted sideways in a “wait and see” mode, Bitcoin took a hit, dropping back toward $90,000.
• The Reason: Fear. Not of the technology, but of the leverage. MicroStrategy ($MSTR) and other “Bitcoin proxies” are facing scrutiny. When the tide goes out, we see who is swimming naked.
• My Thought: Crypto is the canary in the coal mine for liquidity. When the “easy money” pauses, the digital gold loses its shine first. It is a reminder that in a liquidity crunch, everything correlates to… ONE.

3. The Netflix Leviathan (Confirmed)

• The News: It is official. Netflix ($NFLX) is swallowing Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD).
• The Aftermath: The market reaction was mixed. Netflix stock dipped (perhaps, buyer’s remorse?), while WBD popped.
• The Metaphor: The disruptor has become the establishment. The barbarian is now the emperor. It reminds me of the traffic on the 405—eventually, everything that moves fast slows down and becomes part of the jam. Then again, aren’t we all?

4. The “Santa Rally” or The Cliff?

• The Sentiment: A reporter on a Youtube video from Bloomberg TV suggests a “wait and see” approach before the Fed meeting next week. The “Santa Rally” is the narrative everyone wants to believe in.
• The Risk: But as the reporter noted, if the Fed cuts too aggressively, it signals panic. If they don’t cut, it signals stubbornness. We are walking a tightrope.
• My Thought: The market is like the crowd on Sunset Boulevard. We are waiting for the pop-up to open. We hope it’s a concert. We fear it’s an empty room.

I finished watching the stock market report and closed the video. The wind outside is picking up—the Santa Anas, perhaps. They bring heat in the winter, a dry, confusing warmth that makes everyone on edge. But I like this surprise though. Perfect weather for BBQ in December? I must be living in a nice part of the matrix.

The market closed flat today, a deceptive calm. We are all waiting for next week. Waiting for the curtain to drop, wishing everyone happy weekends.

Disclaimer: I am not a cartographer, and this is not a map. It is simply a logbook of the shadows I saw while walking. I am not a financial advisor. The market is a strange, indifferent machine that does not care about our plans or our safety. Nothing written here is a recommendation to buy or sell. These are just notes from the edge of the forest. Please find your own way through the trees.