What I Talk About When I Talk About Money

Time Traveler’s Mistake

I stayed up last night. The analogue clock on the wall read 12:17 AM—a time when the world is stripped of its logic and left only with its raw mechanics.

I crouch in my faithful armchair, listening to the silence of the house, feeling a familiar, cold thought rise up like a bubble from the bottom of a deep well. What is the meaning of all this? It is a question we all face, usually when we are defenseless. If I die tomorrow, the world would stay exactly the same. I assume everyone has spun this record on their mental turntable at least once. It is a heavy, scratchy song.

But then, something shifted. It wasn’t a lightning bolt; it was a quiet click, like a key turning in a lock.

The answer was simple: Today.

The value of life isn’t a long, continuous line. It is this specific day. This Tuesday. It struck me that this single day is worth enough to balance the scale against all the days I have lived before, and all the days remaining until I die. The clarity was physical. I felt a swelling in my chest, a rising tide of emotion that pushed sleep entirely out of the room.

That is why life is precious. Not because it is long, but because this particular day makes the price of admission worth it.

I paced around in the darkness, the feeling of the epiphany slowly settling into the room like dust. It reminded me of the final realization in the movie About Time.

Throughout the film, the protagonist, Tim, uses his ability to travel back in time to fix mistakes—to perfect the moments. But in the end, he stops traveling. He realizes that the true secret isn’t to fix the past or control the future. The secret is to live each day as if you had deliberately come back to this one day, to enjoy it as if it were the full, final story. As he says, “We’re all traveling through time together, every day of our lives. All we can do is do our best to relish this remarkable ride.”

It struck me then that the global market is the exact opposite of this sentiment. It is a terrible time traveler. It refuses to live in “today.” It is obsessed with the future—trembling over a Federal Reserve announcement that hasn’t happened yet—or obsessing over the past, digging up old data. It misses the ride entirely because it is too busy trying to steer the train.

The sun was peaking out. I opened my laptop. The screen glowed blue, illuminating the machine that never sleeps and never enjoys the moment.

1. The Holding Pattern

U.S. Equity Futures are pointing to a mixed, slightly higher open. The S&P 500 (+0.19%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.31%) are edging upward, trying to stabilize after yesterday’s stumble. But there is no conviction here. The market is in a “holding pattern,” suspended in mid-air, waiting for the Federal Reserve to speak tomorrow.

It feels like the paused frame of a movie, where everyone is frozen, waiting for the director to say “Action.”

2. The Chip and the Border

There was one specific signal cutting through the static, however.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is up ~2% in the pre-market. Reports are circulating that the administration has approved the export of specific high-performance AI chips (the H200) to China.

It reminds me of a secret message being passed across a heavily guarded border. The regulatory fears have lifted, just a crack, and the capital is rushing through that opening like water seeking its level.

3. The Ghosts of September and October

The most surreal part of today’s script involves looking backward.

At 7:00 AM PST, the JOLTS Job Openings report will be released. But this isn’t normal data. It is a “double release,” covering delayed numbers from both September and October.

The market is waiting for ghosts. We are looking for the footprints of months that have already vanished. The consensus is that openings will hold near 7.1–7.2 million.

But here lies the “Data Trap.” The volume is thin today because everyone is afraid of the future (The Fed). If these delayed numbers surprise us—if the ghosts of the past are louder than expected—the algorithms might overreact. A “whipsaw” move is possible. It is dangerous to navigate a ship based on a map drawn two months ago.

4. The Yield and the Silence

The 10-Year Treasury Yield is holding steady at 4.16%. It is hovering near its highest level in a month, but today it is effectively locked. The bond market is paralyzed, waiting for the “dot plot” tomorrow.

The FOMC meeting begins today. The “Blackout” is in full effect. The officials are silent. They are behind the curtain, adjusting the gears of the world, while we wait outside.

The Watchlist

• NVIDIA (NVDA): The bird that was allowed to fly.
• Crypto (COIN, MSTR): Showing signs of life as Bitcoin stabilizes, though the volatility is still humming in the background like a fluorescent light.
• Earnings: AutoZone (AZO) reported this morning. GameStop (GME) and Toll Brothers (TOL) will report after the sun goes down.

Conclusion

I watched the numbers flicker on the screen, changing every microsecond, obsessed with a future that doesn’t exist yet and a past that is already gone.

The market is trapped. It cannot enjoy today because it is too worried about the interest rates of tomorrow.

But I went back to my epiphany from earlier. This day is worth living.

Let the algorithms worry about the JOLTS report. Let the bond traders sweat over the dot plot. For us, the coffee is hot, the day is beginning, and as the movie taught us, we just need to relish the ride.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am just a man sitting in the dark, thinking about time travel and the weight of a Tuesday. Do your own research.