What I Talk About When I Talk About Money

The Oracle’s Silence and the 5 AM Sky

I am out of shape.

I have been repeating this phrase for months, rolling it around in my mouth like a smooth, tasteless stone.

Watching my wife wake up at 4:00 AM for her online class—moving through the dark house with the silent precision of a cat—finally broke something in me. I challenged myself. I set the alarm for 5:00 AM.

And I ran.

It has been more than a year since I last ran for the sake of running. I didn’t sprint. I didn’t push for a personal best. I just needed to start. It was only fifteen minutes, a short loop around the sleeping neighborhood, but it changed the color of the morning.

My usual mornings are foggy. A “groggy coffee zombie” routine. There is usually a sense of a chaotic, directionless scrambling, like leaves caught in a sudden gust. Rushing to make breakfast, shouting about lost socks, the mental static of the day beginning before I am ready.

But today, there was none of that. The run cleared the static. The breakfast was made in silence. The kids were ready without the usual friction.

Even though I knew, theoretically, that discipline creates freedom, I had been pushing it away with flimsy excuses. R U N !

As I cooled down, watching the grey sky turn a pale, bruised purple over the rooftops, a question hit me. What will I think when I am 80 and look back at this moment?

It’s the same way I look back at my 20s now—with a gentle, aching frustration at how much time I wasted on things that evaporated as soon as I touched them. Consumptive, meaningless things. I already knew the answer. The only thing that stays is what you build. The body, the mind, the routine.

The Shadow of the Trees

It reminded me of Hirayama, the protagonist in Wim Wenders’ film Perfect Days (2023).

Hirayama cleans toilets in Tokyo. His life is a loop of repetition. He wakes up to the sound of a broom sweeping the street. He waters his plants. He buys a canned coffee from the vending machine. He listens to cassette tapes.

There is a scene where he simply looks up at the sunlight filtering through the trees—komorebi. He takes a photo of it. It is a moment that will never happen again in exactly the same way. He doesn’t rush. He doesn’t panic about the future. He exists fully in the ritual of his day. His dignity comes not from his status, but from his discipline.

The market, in contrast, has no discipline. It is all the chaos you want. It runs around in confusion, terrified of the future, regretting the past.

Today, the market woke up with a hangover.

1. The Oracle’s Reality Check

While I was finding clarity in my morning run, Oracle ($ORCL) was stumbling in the dark. The stock is down 14% this morning.

Why? Because the “AI Dream” hit the wall of accounting physics. Oracle missed its revenue targets. More worryingly, they raised their capital expenditure guidance to $50 billion for 2026. They are spending money faster than they are making it, building massive data centers for a future that hasn’t fully arrived yet.

It is the classic fear: Are we building empty castles? The market looked at Oracle’s bill and flinched. The “AI Bubble” narrative is whispering again, louder this time.

2. The Fed’s Soft Whisper

But beneath the noise of the tech sell-off, there was a quieter, more important signal.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell played the role of the benevolent gardener. He cut rates, yes, but more importantly, he admitted the truth: the labor market is weaker than it looks.

And today, the data proved him right. Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 236,000, the highest level since the pandemic panic of 2020. The cracks are visible.

To fix this, the Fed initiated a “Reserve Management Buyback”—a technical term for “we are going to pump cash into the system starting tomorrow.” They are watering the plants before they wither. This liquidity is why the 10-Year Treasury yield dropped to 4.11%. The safety net is there, even if Oracle is falling off the tightrope.

3. The Mouse and the Machine

In the entertainment corner, a strange dance is happening.

Disney has decided to embrace the machine. They announced a massive partnership with OpenAI, allowing the “Sora” video AI to learn from Mickey Mouse, Marvel, and Star Wars for the next three years.

It is a concession. Disney realizes it cannot beat the AI wave, so it is trying to ride it. At the same time, they sent a “Cease and Desist” to Google for doing the same thing without permission. It’s a message: You can use our magic, but only if you pay the toll.

Conclusion

The market is messy today. Tech is down, bonds are up, and confusion reigns. It is chaos on a global scale.

But the lesson from the 5 AM run—and from Hirayama in Perfect Days—is that you cannot control the chaos outside. You can only control your own ritual.

Oracle missed its earnings. The Fed is printing money. But I ran 15 minutes today. And tonight, I will sleep knowing that at least one thing went exactly according to plan. The day is still young. Maybe I’ll go for another 15 minute run soon.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am just a man trying to outrun his own excuses in the early morning light. Do your own research.